A Republican has not flipped a Democratic House seat in California since 1998.
Candidates backed by President Trump were outperforming expectations in two closely watched congressional special elections on Tuesday night, as former Navy combat pilot Mike Garcia inched closer to ousting Democrat Katie Hill’s California seat and Republican Tom Tiffany easily prevailed in Wisconsin.
Garcia grabbed an early lead Tuesday in the fight for an open U.S. House seat north of Los Angeles, giving California Republicans a rare chance to claim a Democratic-held congressional seat in the state. With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Garcia was leading Democrat Christy Smith 55.9 percent to 44.1 percent.
Trump lost the district by 6 percentage points in 2016. He went out of his way to promote Garcia in recent weeks as strong on guns and immigration, and some Democrats had hoped he would be a liability in the race. Former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other high-profile Democrats all lined up behind Smith.
Garcia told supporters he wouldn’t declare victory Tuesday night, but added, “It is looking extremely good.”
The special election between Garcia and Smith in the swing 25th District has taken on outsized importance as the only competitive House race in the country in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. It’s seen nationally as a proxy vote on Trump’s leadership and a possible harbinger for November elections.
And, Trump and the National Republican Congressional Committee had claimed Democrats were trying to steal the election with a last-minute move to open up an additional polling station in the district, located in the northern suburbs of Los Angeles and in the neighboring high desert Antelope Valley cities of Lancaster and Palmdale.
This undated photo provided by the Mike Garcia For Congress campaign shows candidate Mike Garcia. A swing House district north of Los Angeles is up for grabs in a contest that will be an early test for President Donald Trump as he heads toward November. Trump has been using his presidential perch to summon up support for Republican Mike Garcia, who faces Democrat Christy Smith on Tuesday, May 12, 2020 in a special election for the vacant 25th District seat. (Cynthia Smalley/Mike Garcia For Congress via AP)
“Supporters of Mike Garcia are already calling tonight a ‘landslide’ and saying that he represents the ‘first domino’ in a line of Republican wins this year,” reported The New York Times’ Jennifer Medina.
Less than a year into her term, Hill resigned amid controversy involving intimate photos of her that were published online without her consent, and after a House ethics probe looked into accusations of an improper relationship between the congresswoman and a staff member.
Meanwhile, Trump himself put up historic numbers in the Nebraska presidential primary. With less than half the vote in, Trump has already doubled his 2016 total in the state — leading GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel to tout what she called surging “enthusiasm” for the president’s reelection.
In Wisconsin, Republican Tom Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by Trump, easily won a special congressional election Tuesday in the state’s heavily conservative, rural 7th Congressional District.
Tiffany’s win over Democrat Tricia Zunker in northern Wisconsin’s 7th District comes in the state’s second election amid the coronavirus pandemic the past five weeks. Tiffany will replace former reality TV star Sean Duffy, a Republican who retired in September. The district, which covers all or parts of 26 counties, has been vacant since Duffy’s retirement.
Trump won Wisconsin by less than a point, but carried the district by 20 points, in 2016. Trump backed Tiffany in the race, but due to the pandemic was unable to campaign in person for him.
Zunker, president of the Wausau School Board, was trying to become the first Native American from Wisconsin elected to Congress. She would have also been the first woman to represent the district, which stretches from Wausau in the south up to Lake Superior and includes popular tourist destinations like Bayfield and Madeline Island.
Wisconsin state Sen. Thomas Tiffany, R-Hazelhurst, speaks at the State Capitol in Madison, Wis., May 29, 2015. Tiffany, a candidate endorsed by President Trump, won Tuesday’s special House election. (Associated Press).
Zunker pulled in big-name endorsements, including from U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., but the numbers were against her. The district has been under Republican control since 2011 and was redistricted to more heavily favor the GOP.
There was uncertainty over whether holding a special election in the middle of the pandemic would affect the outcome. Election clerks said they were prepared, about 20 percent of registered voters had voted absentee, and there were no calls to delay or alter the election like there were before Wisconsin’s presidential primary last month.
With Tiffany’s win, Republicans hold five of Wisconsin’s eight seats in Congress. Tiffany will serve through the end of the year, but will have to run again in November to serve a full two-year term.