With three weeks to go until Election Day, new public opinion polls in two key battleground states that President Trump flipped four years indicate that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds sizeable leads over the president.

The New York Times surveys conducted by Siena College show the former vice president topping Trump 48%-40% among likely voters in Michigan, and Biden leading the president 51%-41% among likely voters in Wisconsin.


The two states – along with Pennsylvania – had been carried by Democrats in presidential elections for a quarter century until four years ago, when Trump narrowly edged 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to win all three states, helping him secure the White House.

Trump carried all three states in 2016 thanks in part to a strong showing among White voters without college degrees. But the new surveys indicate that he’s not matching his support from four years ago, with Biden topping the president by 8 points among White voters in Wisconsin and trailing Trump by just one point among White voters in Michigan.

An average of the most recent surveys compiled by Real Clear Politics indicates Biden leading Trump by 7 points in Michigan and 6.3 points in Wisconsin.

At this point four years ago, Clinton led Trump by 6 points in Wisconsin. She topped him by 6.5 points in an average of the polls on the eve of the election. Trump ended up taking the state by seven-tenths of one percent. Clinton lead Trump by 9.6 points in Michigan on this date in the 2016 cycle – and she topped him by 3.6 points in an average of the polls  on the eve of the election. Trump ended up winning the state by three-tenths of one percent.

In a conference call Monday with reporters, the Trump campaign downplayed the current public opinion surveys and spotlighted their own internal polling.

“The enthusiasm in the states are very real,” senior adviser Corey Lewandowski said. “We feel very good with our polling numbers.”

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